They are small, but far from harmless when they end up in the environment. Member of the European Parliament Grace O’Sullivan (The Greens/ EFA) said that 180,000 tonnes of the granules used to produce plastic products get lost in the value chain, harming the biosphere. EUfactcheck discovered that a rather high estimate was chosen from a questionable confidence interval to “demonstrate the scale of the problem”. Nevertheless, experts agree that the problem of plastic pallet waste is real and important.
On March 19th 2024 Irish Member of the European Parliament for The Greens, Grace O’Sullivan, posted on X that: “180,000 tonnes of plastic pellets, which are used to manufacture plastic products, are lost into the environment every year in Europe, with devastating consequences on marine life and ecosystems.”
That day, the Council of the European Union voted on the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the council on preventing plastic pellet losses to reduce microplastic pollution. Now, this document is in the parliament for a first reading.
Small problem with big impact
Plastic pellets are small plastic granules used as raw material by the plastic industry. The granules are melted into a final product. Some substances get lost, which is harmful to the environment and the human health, because the pellets are microplastics: tiny pieces of plastic that are easily dispersed through the air and transported by water, and are found in the soil.
According to the European Commission, the effects of the pellets specifically is difficult to determine “due to a lack of research”, but it deems it to be comparable with the effects of microplastic on the environment in general.
In addition, once the pellets have entered the environment, they can be swallowed by various animals and damage biodiversity and habitats. Especially marine animals, such as turtles and seabirds, ingest the granules, because the granules consist of polyethylene and polypropylene and float on the sea surface. The animals see this as food and eat it.
When animals have ingested the plastic pellets, their breathing can be harmed, swallowing can become difficult, internal injuries can occur, digestion can become difficult, and it can even lead to death. As a result, plastic pellets are seen as the largest microplastic pollutants.
An inquiry into the Proposal
In her post on X, O’Sullivan mentioned a specific number for the yearly amount of plastic pellets lost in the environment, namely 180,000 tonnes. EUfactcheck found a press release on the European Parliament’s news website with information on the proposal. However, it only mentioned ‘up to 180,000 tonnes’ of plastic that were lost in the environment every year.
The press release was linked to a Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the council on preventing plastic pellet losses to reduce microplastic pollution. In turn, the document does not mention 180,000 tonnes, but merely uses a rough estimate to explain the problem of plastic losses, which ranges from 52,140 tonnes to 184,290 tonnes in the year 2019.
As different figures are mentioned in the EU documents, it was important to find the original study. This turned out to be a Commission Staff Working Document Impact Assessment Report. This document contains the original estimation in its annexes, and an explanation of how it was made.
The mistaken calculation
The study analysed and aggregated data from member states, organisations, and other studies. As that plastic pellet loss is not routinely measured and making accurate data is unattainable, it attempts to make an estimate of the total pellet waste.
To estimate the quantity lost, the study considered four production cycle steps and provided a confidence interval for the estimation of loss made in every step: production (0.01% – 0.02%), processing (0.02% – 0.06%), recycling (0.02% – 0.06%) and logistics (0.03% – 0.12%). Finally, the study assumes, on the basis of simple additions, that the total loss of plastic pellets in the EU is between 0.08% and 0.28%.
With 65.3 million tons of plastic pellets in circulation in the EU in 2019, this results in an estimated 52,140 tonnes and 184,290 tonnes of lost plastic pellets in the EU in 2019. The 180,000 tonnes mentioned by Mrs O’Sullivan fall indeed within in the interval, but are very close to the upper boundary. There is no logical reason why this high number was picked instead of middle of the interval ((52,140 + 184,290) tonnes /2 = 118,215 tonnes), which would a better estimator for the real value.
In a reaction to EUfactcheck, Mrs. O’Sullivan’s advisor Gavin Nugent confirmed that she used the 180,000 tonnes statement just “to demonstrate the scale of the problem of plastic pellet loss in the EU, and to highlight the significant damage that plastics do to the marine environment”.
But there is an interesting problem with the figures. It looks like a confidence interval for the total pellet waste was calculated by simply adding the values of to the lower and higher boundaries of the estimations of pellet waste across the different stages. This would be an incorrect statistical approach, resulting into an overestimation of the level of uncertainty. A correct statistical approach is expected to yield a narrower confidence interval, making the upper boundary lower. In that case, the figure of 180,000 tonnes might fall outside of the confidence interval, making it an extreme estimate.
Also Shannon Bakker, statistics lecturer at Hogeschool Utrecht, questions the statistical method used in the calculation by the Commission She adds that “more statistical information is needed to calculate the correct confidence interval”.
EUfactcheck asked the European Commission to explain its calculations. On 3 June, Maëlys Dreux, Press Officer for Environment, said that the commission is still “clarifying some elements in its reply” and promised an answer “as soon as possible”. Today, 13 days after our first request, EUfactcheck has still not received an explanation.
Conclusion
To sum up, this factcheck claims that Mrs O’Sullivan’s statement is mostly true. The EU Commission’s data is not reliable enough to give an precise figure for plastic pallets lost. However, it is undisputed by industry, science and politics that the loss of plastic pallets in the production chain is a serious problem. Therefore, EUfactcheck qualifies O’Sullivans claim to be mostly true.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE | by Hauke Dhem (Jade University of Applied Sciences, Wilhelmshaven, Germany), Laia Jubany (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain), Kiki-Jane van Iterson (HU University of Applied Sciences Utrecht, Netherlands) and Matija Matkovic (University of Zagreb, Faculty of Political Science, Croatia).
This factcheck was produced during the Blended Intensive Programme EU Elections Lab at the School of Journalism in Utrecht, The Netherlands.
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