On March 7, 2024 the German news program “Tagesschau” released an article about the current number of asylum applications, revealing a notable decline in first-time applications for asylum in February. This claim is true.
The article states that the number of first-time applications for asylum have decreased in comparison to last year. There were 19.494 applications in February of 2024, marking an 18,9% decrease from the same period last year and a 26,1% decrease from the previous month. Additionally, January 2024 witnessed a 10% decrease in first-time applications compared to January 2023.
The article summarizes the numbers of the first two months of 2023 and 2024. In January and February of 2023, a total of 54.333 first-time applications were recorded. In the first two months of the year 2024 there were 47.090 applications in total, indicating a decrease of 7.243.
The article’s source is from the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees. This is a reliable source because it is a governmental agency. It is the primary institution tasked with managing migration and refugee affairs in Germany. It collects data directly from asylum seekers and employs standardized procedures for recording and reporting asylum statistics, enhancing the reliability and consistency of the data. It operates transparently and is audited by government agencies, independent supervisory authorities and the public. This increases accountability and ensures the accuracy of the data it provides. In addition, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees works with international standards when collecting data. While no source is infallible, as a government agency the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees generally shows credibility when it comes to asylum statistics in Germany. The statistic published by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees only states the number of applications, not the percentage decrease.
According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, February 2024 saw 19.494 first-time applications compared to 29.072 in February 2023, resulting in an 18,9% decrease. Same goes for the 26,1% decrease from January to February 2024, as there were 26.376 first-time applications in January 2024, which results in a 26,1% decrease. The 10% decrease turns out to be true as well as there were 29.072 first-time applications in January 2023 according to the statistics.
However, the total numbers of the first two months in 2023 and 2024 turned out to be not correct. After contacting the German news program “tagesschau” and asking how they calculated these total numbers and which exact statistic they used we got the answer that they used another statistic from the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees. After checking this statistic, the numbers still were not adding up. Which is why we contacted the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees. They informed us that the inconsistency stemmed from subsequent alterations, prompting them to publish separate monthly statistics. This revelation not only clarified the source of the differing numbers but also offered insight into why the tagesschau chose to incorporate those figures into their reporting.
The video shows the reasons for declining numbers of asylum applications
The tagesschau remained faithful to the numbers they found and only reported what was published by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees. Despite the subsequent alterations, it does not invalidate the figures cited in the article. The tagesschau reported accurately and even with the alterations, the data still leads to the same conclusion. The claim that “numbers of first-time asylum applications have declined in February” is true.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE © Linda Kühn and Sara Marino, Jade University of Applied Sciences Wilhelmshaven, Germany
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