During a broadcast of the Flemish current affairs program “De Zevende Dag”, Klaas Slootmans, a member of the far-right party Vlaams Belang, claimed that in the next 25 years one billion African immigrants will come to (Western) Europe. After checking the facts, it turns out that Slootmans’ statement is false.
In the episode of De Zevende Dag, the new migration pact of the European Union is the central topic. The party of Klaas Slootmans, Vlaams Belang, disagrees with the way it is being handled. According to Slootmans, politicians have forgotten to consider the future prospects of migration to Europe. Slootmans’ claim is as follows: “I think we should take the perspectives into account. Africa today has 1.2 billion inhabitants; the UN says that by 2050 there will be 2.5 billion. Development economists say that 40% of them want to come here (read: Europe). That means that within 25 years our continent of 500 million will grow by one billion people, that is the perspective this migration pact gives us.”
After we asked Slootmans about his sources, he responded as follows: “This is a simple representation of existing observable figures. Africa currently has approximately 1.2 billion inhabitants. The UN predicts based on birth rates that this will increase to 2.5 billion by 2050. Development economists (such as Paul Collier) estimate that 40 percent of them want to come to Europe (and especially Western Europe). 40% of 2.5 billion = 1 billion.”
Analysis of Migration Data
The claim that 1 billion Africans will migrate to Europe within 25 years is not supported by current data. According to the Gallup World Poll, a well-regarded source for global migration aspirations, 37% of Sub-Saharan Africans express a desire to migrate to another country, but not specifically to Europe. The number of North-Africans and Middle-Easterners who want to migrate is even lower, at 29%. Additionally, the actual number of migrants is significantly lower due to various barriers.
Ilse Ruyssen, research professor in Migration Economics at University of Ghent, emphasizes that most African migration is regional rather than intercontinental. Data from the World Bank indicates that African migrants often move to neighbouring countries within the continent rather than to Europe. This trend is consistent with global migration patterns, where proximity and cultural similarities influence destination choices more than distant continents.
Barriers to Migration
Glenn Rayp, research professor in Migration Economics and policies at the University of Ghent, highlights the significant gap between migration aspirations and actual migration. While many people express a desire to migrate, various factors prevent this from happening. These include restrictive migration policies, financial limitations, and personal or familial responsibilities. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that despite high migration aspirations, only about 3% of the global population lives in a country different from where they were born.
Predictive Limitations
Predicting migration trends over a 25-year period is highly speculative and fraught withuncertainties. As Professor Ruyssen notes, geopolitical developments, economic opportunities, climate change, and policy changes all influence migration patterns. Historical forecasts have often been inaccurate due to the complex and interdependent nature of these factors.
Professor Rayp says the following about the current migration statistics. Currently, there are approximately 9.6 million Sub-Saharan Africans residing in the EU, which is about 2% of the EU’s population and less than 1% of Africa’s population. Even if this number were to double, it would still be far from the 1 billion figure claimed by Slootmans. This context underscores the implausibility of such a massive migration wave.
In short, the claim by Klaas Slootmans that 1 billion African immigrants will come to Europe in the next 25 years is false. Data from credible sources, expert analyses, and current migration trends all refute this assertion. Most African migration is regional and various barriers significantly limit the number of people who can and do migrate internationally.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE © Stan Gunst and Victor Koten
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