In June 2025, Alice Weidel, leader of the radical right-wing party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), stated that mass migration had not helped the German labour market, had not alleviated the pension crisis and, on the contrary, had overburdened the social system. These statements are in line with the broader rhetoric of the AfD, and are mostly false.
Germany is struggling with a structural labour shortage, an ageing population and a declining birth rate. In response, the federal government has implemented reforms such as the Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz (Skilled Immigration Act), aimed at attracting foreign workers. VRT correspondent Jeroen Reygaert explains: “The debate is ongoing. It has been fuelled by the attacks of the last two years and also by the existence of the AfD.”
Labour market: migrants drive employment growth
According to the German Ministry of the Interior, the number of work and training visas rose by 77% between 2021 and 2024, from 97,000 to 172,000. The number of study visas also increased by 43%. This rise reflects the success of reforms designed to attract skilled workers.
Data from the IAB Forum show that since 2005, all employment growth in Germany has been attributable to migrants. Between 2005 and 2023, employment increased by 6.1 million people, of whom 6.3 million had a migrant background. In 2024, migrants accounted for the entire growth in socially insured jobs: there were 277,000 additional foreign workers, while the number of German workers declined by 125,000.
Pensions and demographics: migration as a necessary compensation
Migrants are on average younger than the German population and therefore contribute longer and more to social systems than they withdraw from them. According to the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), migration is essential to maintaining Germany’s economic growth potential. Without migration, that potential would fall to zero by 2029. To sustain an average growth rate of 1.1%, a net migration of 1.5 million workers would be required.
Reygaert illustrates this with an example from healthcare: “There are currently 7,000 Syrian doctors in Germany. These are people who contribute to the state and society and have therefore adapted to their situation. More importantly, they have definitely helped to alleviate the acute labour shortage in Germany.”
Social security: a nuanced picture
Weidel claims that migration is overburdening the social system. The figures, however, paint a more nuanced picture. According to the IAB, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits (SGB II) rose from 1.2 million in 2010 to 2.1 million in 2023. Despite this increase, the proportion of migrants who are primarily dependent on SGB II remained virtually stable, declining slightly from 9.3% to 9.2%.
Among migrants without a refugee background, the share fell more significantly, from 8.7% to 5.4%. Although refugees incur higher costs in the initial phase — including language training and integration support — the long-term outlook is positive. Eight years after arrival, 68% of refugees are in employment, with male refugees even exceeding the national average employment rate.
Participation in integration courses has increased by 248% since 2021, indicating active efforts towards social and professional inclusion. On average, 838,000 migrants leave Germany each year, pointing to a highly dynamic migration pattern. While 37% of migrants currently work in low-skilled jobs, demand for such labour is structurally declining. This highlights the need for targeted training programmes rather than restrictions on migration itself.
Costs and benefits: migration as an investment
Weidel refers to a figure of €30 billion spent on migration policy in 2024. This figure is correct and refers to federal expenditure on reception, integration and border management. However, presenting this amount as a net loss is misleading.
According to Werding’s study, migrants initially have a negative fiscal balance due to integration costs. After approximately ten years, however, this balance turns positive. A working migrant then contributes an average of €3,000 to €5,000 net per year to public finances through taxes and social security contributions.
Reygaert nuances the integration debate: “Some are integrating, some are not. As is the case everywhere. It is not so black and white. Most of them work, and their children attend school. So it depends on how you view integration. Assimilation is not the same as integration, but that is how the authorities often see it.”
Overall, the figures show that migration pays off in the long term, provided that appropriate policies are in place. It is an investment that yields returns, especially in sectors with structural shortages such as healthcare, technology and hospitality. To that end, the German government has accelerated the recognition of foreign qualifications and facilitated access to the labour market.
Political reality: migration as a necessity
Politicians from the SPD, CDU and FDP increasingly recognise that migration is essential to maintaining Germany’s economic and social stability. The slogan “Wir schaffen das” (“We can do it”), once controversial, has gradually become realpolitik. International media, including De Correspondent, emphasise that Germany cannot sustain its labour market without migrants, particularly in light of its ageing population.
Reygaert reflects on Angela Merkel’s approach: “‘Wir schaffen das’ has been successful in the sense that Merkel intended. People have been taken in, people have been given shelter and people have been helped.”
Conclusion
Alice Weidel’s statements are largely incorrect. Migration demonstrably contributes to alleviating labour shortages and strengthening the pension system. Social security is not structurally overburdened by migration; on the contrary, migrants make a net positive contribution to public finances in the long term.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE © By Stef Stans and Jacopo Garavaglia
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