During the plenary session of the German Bundestag on 9 July 2025, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) stated: “Germany accounts for approximately 1 percent of the world’s population. We account for roughly 2 percent of the problem in terms of CO₂ emissions. Even if we were all climate-neutral in Germany tomorrow, not a single natural disaster anywhere in the world would occur less frequently, not a single wildfire would occur less frequently, not a single flood in Texas would occur less frequently.” As far as the facts are concerned, his statement is correct; however, it could lead to the politically misleading conclusion that ambitious national climate protection is unnecessary.
During the first questioning session of the Federal Chancellor in the current legislative period, Member of Parliament Julia Verlinden (Die Grünen) confronted Merz with contradictory signals within the government regarding the 2045 climate target. She used this as an opportunity to ask Friedrich Merz about his position on Germany’s climate targets and on Germany’s international responsibility in climate protection.
Population figures for Germany and the world
According to the Statistisches Bundesamt, approximately 83.5 million people were living in Germany at the end of June 2025. Based on United Nations data, the global population in 2025 is estimated at approximately 8.23 billion people. Accordingly, Germany accounts for about 1.02 percent of the world’s population.
Germany’s share of CO₂ emissions
According to the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 amounted to approximately 53.2 billion tons of CO₂ equivalents, excluding emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). Germany’s share of global emissions is 1.27 percent; in total, Germany emits approximately 674 million tons of CO₂ equivalents.
The figure of “approximately 2 percent” cited by Merz is therefore clearly rounded up, but it still falls within the range of a rough simplification. He is presumably referring to past data, as Germany’s share of emissions was still 2.07 percent in 2018.
Impact of German CO₂ emissions
Despite Germany’s relatively small share of total global emissions, the impact of German CO₂ emissions is not negligible. With approximately 649 million tons of CO₂ equivalents in 2024, Germany continues to rank among the world’s largest emitters. In a comparison of per capita CO₂ emissions worldwide in 2024 among selected countries, Germany ranks 14th, with 6.77 tons of CO₂ per capita.
If one were to agree with Merz’s statement insofar as Germany’s CO₂ emissions alone do not cause or prevent any single extreme weather disaster, this could imply that, given its relatively small share of global CO₂ emissions, Germany could continue emitting CO₂ in the coming years without significant consequences. From a climatological perspective, however, every additional ton of CO₂ emitted has an impact on the global climate system. The relationship between cumulative emissions and the global mean temperature is well established: the higher the total amount of CO₂ emitted, the greater the warming. This means that German emissions – together with those of other countries – also influence the probability and intensity of extreme events such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, or droughts in the long term. Climate protection measures taken by individual countries therefore do not have an isolated, immediately visible effect, but are part of the collective reduction necessary to limit global warming.
Furthermore, according to the Global Carbon Budget 2025, only 170 billion tons of CO₂ may still be emitted in order to comply with the 1.5-degree target set out in the Paris Agreement. At current emission rates, this would correspond to approximately four more years. According to the Umweltbundesamt, the necessity of the 1.5-degree target arises from the fact that an increase of 2 °C would very likely result in critical thresholds of the climate system, known as tipping points, being reached, which would result in a qualitative, abrupt, and in some cases irreversible change in the climate.
Germany’s historical responsibility
An aspect not considered in Friedrich Merz’s statement is Germany’s historical emissions. The earliest records of Germany’s CO₂ emissions date back to 1750. Since then, emissions have been continuously released. Since 1750, Germany ranks fourth among the countries with the highest historical emissions. Ahead of Germany are the United States, China, and Russia, followed by the United Kingdom in fifth place. This is based on calculations by Our World in Data.
Germany is therefore responsible for 5.2 percent of all global CO₂ emissions. In this calculation, emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry have already been excluded.
Global warming is influenced not only by current emissions but also by those emitted in the past. Historical responsibility must not be neglected in the argument for fairness in climate protection measures.
Germany’s role in international climate protection
Germany’s role in international climate protection must also not be underestimated. The Umweltbundesamt describes climate change as “a global challenge that requires international solutions and the cooperation of all countries.”
The Potsdam climate researcher Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of ocean physics at the University of Potsdam and one of the lead authors of the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report in 2007, commented on his blog as follows: “If one were to divide the world’s population into 50 groups, each responsible for two percent of global emissions, does that mean that no one has to do anything?” In doing so, Rahmstorf appeals to the responsibility of each individual country with regard to climate protection, regardless of its share of total emissions.
With the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement, Article 3 of the agreement also commits all parties, including Germany, to ambitious efforts and to achieving the climate targets set out in the agreement. In addition, Germany is obliged to take effective climate protection measures on the basis of constitutional provisions on national objectives. In Article 20a of the Basic Law, the German state commits itself to protecting “the natural foundations of life in responsibility for future generations.” In its climate protection ruling of March 24, 2021, the Federal Constitutional Court decided that the burdens of climate protection should not be passed on to future generations – a fair distribution is needed.
Conclusion
As far as the facts are concerned, Friedrich Merz’s statement is largely correct. The population share cited is accurate, Germany’s share of emissions is strongly simplified but not fabricated, and the assessment of the short-term impact of climate neutrality in Germany corresponds to the current state of climate science. However, the statement becomes misleading insofar as it may be interpreted as an argument against ambitious national climate protection. Scientifically, it is correct that climate protection does not have an immediate effect. Politically, however, this does not mean that individual countries should refrain from taking climate protection measures.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE © Elisabeth Bertsch, Simon Teufner and Stella Marrone, Stuttgart Media University, Germany
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