Does a ban on new internal combustion engine cars achieve nothing for the climate? This statement was made by German CDU politician Manuel Hagel in the context of the debate over the planned EU-wide ban on new registrations of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles starting in 2035. Hagel argued that the EU-wide ban on new ICE vehicle registrations must be “scrapped.” “It harms innovation, weakens our industry, endangers thousands of jobs – and achieves nothing for our climate,” Hagel told the German Press Agency after a discussion in Berlin on September 8, 2025, with federal, state, and EU Parliament CDU/CSU faction leaders and current German Chancellor Merz. He argues that such a ban would have no relevant effect on climate protection. Based on the evaluation of several scientific studies and analyses, his statement is mostly false.
Aim and Scope of the Ban
Hagel’s statement implies that a ban on new ICE registrations is climate-policy ineffective. However, this assessment is not consistent with the widespread consensus in the scientific community. When specifically asked for scientific evidence, Hagel referred to the CDU’s position paper. At the same time, his statement must be understood in the political context of Baden-Württemberg, one of Germany’s key automotive regions, where Hagel is the CDU’s candidate for prime minister in the elections of March 8, 2026.
According to the German Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt), the transport sector in Germany is responsible for roughly 20 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions, with motorized road traffic being the main culprit. The agency also reports that despite an overall significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in Germany since 1990, there has been little improvement in the transport sector. This is precisely where the ban on new ICE registrations is directed. In 2022, the EU decided that new internal combustion engine cars would no longer be allowed to be registered starting in 2035. It is important to note that this measure applies exclusively to new registrations from 2035 and not to the existing vehicle fleet. The climate impact will therefore only occur gradually but is designed to be long-term.
Life Cycle Emissions: What Do the Studies Say?
To assess whether a ban on new ICE registrations truly “achieves nothing” for the climate, it is relevant to examine life cycle assessments (LCAs). These help evaluate a vehicle’s total greenhouse gas emissions across all phases, from production to use and disposal.
Looking at the report from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the life cycle emissions of electric cars in the European Union are estimated to be 73% lower than those of gasoline vehicles. If exclusively renewable electricity is used, the reduction would even be up to 78%.
Is the Criticism Justified?
While the sweeping statement “the ICE phase-out achieves nothing for the climate” is false, certain points of criticism are understandable. According to an analysis by the Ariadne project, which is part of the Kopernikus projects (energy research initiatives funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research and exploring pathways to achieve climate targets), an ICE phase-out from 2035 alone would have only a minor climate impact. Model calculations show that in Germany, this would only save between 8.3 and 15.2 million tons of CO2 by 2045 (depending on the CO2 price). For comparison, in Germany passenger car traffic caused around 100 million tons of CO2 in 2020. The reason cited is that the share of electric vehicles in new registrations is already projected to reach 78 to 86 percent by 2035, depending on the CO2 price, even without a ban. In contrast, an ICE registration ban starting in 2030 could reduce CO2 emissions by 36 to 64 million tons by 2045, depending on the CO2 price.
The study also shows that the CO2 price has a stronger and earlier influence on emissions development in passenger car traffic than an ICE phase-out. A moderate CO2 price without an ICE ban reduces more emissions than an ICE new registration ban from 2035 with low CO2 prices. This is because the price influences purchasing decisions and makes the use of existing vehicles more expensive, leading to immediate emission reductions. According to the analysis, the highest climate impact would result from an early ICE ban (2030) combined with a higher CO2 price. Crucially, however: An ICE phase-out would reduce emissions in any scenario.
The German Federal Ministry for the Environment points out that battery-electric vehicles are only as green as the electricity they run on. However, forecasts indicate that the electricity mix will become steadily more sustainable in the coming years. Moreover, even with Germany’s current electricity mix, EVs are already more environmentally friendly than their ICE counterparts.
When asked, Manuel Hagel emphasized the importance of remaining open to the further development of the internal combustion engine. Specifically, he was referring to synthetic fuels (e-fuels). However, the Federal Ministry for the Environment points out that e-fuels, which are seen as an alternative to the electrification of cars, require significantly higher energy input for production and, if produced with electricity from the current mix, can even generate more CO2 than fossil fuels. They would only be climate-friendly with completely renewable electricity but remain less efficient than direct electrification (as of March 28, 2022). Consequently, the electrification of transport effectively lowers CO2 emissions, whereas e-fuels are only sensible where direct electrification is technically difficult, e.g., in air or sea transport.
Conclusion
Based on the available studies, Manuel Hagel’s statement is mostely false. A ban on new internal combustion engine vehicles leads to measurable, long-term reductions in CO₂ emissions in the transport sector. Its effectiveness is greatest when combined with an increasingly renewable electricity mix and complementary measures such as an effective CO₂ price. However, a ban on internal combustion engine vehicles is not a standalone solution to the climate crisis. The Ariadne study indicates that additional policy instruments – such as purchase incentives, bonus-malus systems, scrappage schemes, infrastructure support, or quota systems – are needed to effectively facilitate the transition to low-emission vehicles. Without clear measures to limit new registrations of fossil-fuel vehicles, these cars would continue to remain in the fleet for many years, keeping transport-sector emissions high. At the same time, a phase-out date provides planning certainty for industry, infrastructure, and consumers, and can promote technological innovation.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE © Julia Rist, Mia Röhm & Lea Weißschuh, Stuttgart Media University, Germany
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