On the 19th of February 2023 Sam Tonkin, a Britain based journalist from the Daily Mail published an article about sea level rises around the United Kingdom that could cause floodings in the country. Tonkin stated in the article: ‘Terrifying interactive map reveals the areas that could be plunged UNDERWATER by 2050 amid sea level rise fueled by climate change’. The claim turns out to be mostly true.
On the 19th of February, Sam Tonkin published an article in the Daily Mail in which he wrote about the rising sea levels around the United Kingdom that could eventually cause floodings. The story was published because of the map about water level made by Climate Central (map, z.d.). Tonkin takes a firm stance on the report, stating that the map from Climate Central is terrifying because of the areas that could be submerged by 2050.
The claim from Tonkin is based on the map from Climate Central article. Climate Central is a non-profit organization based in the United States, which researches climate change related subjects all over the world. The data from the map is based on data from CoastalDEM, which was developed by Climate Central. They claim that CoastalDEM ‘reduces median errors in NASA’s widely used NASADEM to near zero’ (Climate Central, z.d.). CoastalDEM uses AI to gather data on the sea levels rising all over the world. A disclaimer (Climate Central, map, z.d.) below the map states that the data for countries outside the US could be less specific for that reason. The organization has also made another disclaimer about the data, stating: ‘As these maps incorporate big datasets, which always include some error, these maps should be regarded as screening tools to identify places that may require deeper investigation of risk.’
We decided that a proper way to factcheck this claim, was to divide it into two parts. First, we will check the claim that the areas ‘could be plunged’. Secondly, we will be checking the 2050 timestamp which Tonkin gives to his claim.
To check the claim from the journalist, we first checked if it corresponded with its original source. The original source, the map by Climate Central, shows the same data. Tonkin presents his conclusions in a more dramatic way, that is why we conclude that his claim is only mostly true.
Then we decided to fact-check the original source. In that process we found another paper, written by Paul Sayers (2022) that had similar conclusions. Paul Sayers is the founder of the independent water management group Sayers and Partners. His report shows another map of the areas with the highest risks of flooding in the UK. Sayers used a Neighborhood Vulnerability Index. The areas marked on Sayers’ map are similar to the ones that are portrayed by the map by Climate Central.
A third map on the subject was developed by TessaDEM. This map displays the height of the land, compared to the sea level. The zones in light blue have the most risk of flooding, these parts are just two meters above sea level according to the data. The light blue zones have a similar form to the areas that are at risk according to Climate Central.
Our research shows that other reports drew similar conclusions on the areas that are or can be below sea level. It is clear that the red markings from Climate Central are based on the height of the land. The next part of this factcheck will discuss the timestamp that was given by Tonkin.
A report by Kulp and Strauss (2019) about the sea level rise states that a population of 230 million people live in an area that is just one meter above the sea level. According to a report by Kopp (2014), there should be a rise in the sea level of 0.3 to 0.9 meters by the year 2100. If the report by Kulp & Strauss is right, there are areas in the UK that are at risk. This is confirmed by the UK Government, which also monitors the sea levels and warns people who live in the risks zones for floodings.
Conclusion
Our research shows that other reports made similar conclusions, which brings us to our conclusion. We find that the claim made by Climate Central is mostly true. The claim that the organization made, which resulted in the article in The Daily Mail, has similarities to other work. The claim that Tonkin made is also mostly true. While Climate Central has covered itself with a disclaimer, the Daily Mail has uploaded an item that could cause panic. In the piece itself the author doesn’t write anything about the disclaimer that Climate Central has included on the website. Tonkin saves himself from the conclusion “false” because he used the word “could” in the headline. Areas in England may indeed be in danger of flooding.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE Henri Keuter, Kristie Wierda
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