In an article from the German news website “Merkur.de”, journalist Lisa Metzger claims that the number of assaults against girls and women decreased significantly. According to our research, this statement appears to be uncheckable.
In the article “Wiesn 2023: Significantly fewer assaults on women than the previous year – Suspected cases of date rape drugs increase” from September 26th 2023 journalist Lisa Metzger reports, that 2023 less women than in 2022 needed help at the victim protection space “Sichere Wiesn”. The free access safe space “Sichere Wiesn” is a collective campaign of “Amyna”, “IMMA” and “Beratungsstelle Frauennotruf München” for girls and women in need, who need a safe space or professional help at the worldwide biggest folk festival Oktoberfest in Munich. In her article she claims: “Oktoberfest 2023: Numbers of assaults against girls and women significantly decrease. The good news is that there are significantly fewer women and girls in need compared to last year. In 2022, the helpers of the “Sichere Wiesn” campaign had to assist 228 women and girls, whereas in 2023, the number of women in distress decreased to only 143 cases. This brings us very close to the prepandemic year of 2019, where there were 146 cases.”
The claim in question is a factual statement, as the numbers can be verified based on statistics. Therefore, it is a precise and factual claim that focuses on a clearly defined topic and provides an exact numerical value. The journalist obtained the data for this article from the “Sichere Wiesn” initiative, making it the primary source. This claim can be thoroughly evaluated in this fact-check by analyzing the numbers and statements provided by this campaign, ensuring its accuracy and credibility.
Current situation at the Oktoberfest 2023
The “Sichere Wiesn” campaign saw a decrease in attendance in 2023, possibly due to the absence of certain services such as free phone charging. The lack of these amenities may have deterred some visitors from participating in the campaign, resulting in fewer overall attendees. Expert Manuela Soller from “Amyna” and “Sichere Wiesn” noted that the pleasant weather encouraged people to spend more time outdoors, leading to a more spread-out crowd and potentially decreasing the likelihood of incidents occurring within the festival tents. In 2022, the tents were overcrowded due to unpleasant weather conditions. Consequently, it may be more meaningful to focus on the numbers of reported assaults rather than general consultations. By considering these factors, we can gain a better understanding of the overall situation at this year’s Oktoberfest.
Analysis of the numbers regarding sexual and physical violence against girls
and women at the “Sichere Wiesn” Campaign
We have been provided with data from the campaign “Sichere Wiesn” that we are unfortunately not allowed to disclose in detail for the public. It is crucial to acknowledge that the sample size of reported cases may not be representative of the
actual prevalence of violence against girls and women at Oktoberfest. However, what can be said is that compared to 2022, the numbers in 2023 have only slightly decreased. There has been a marginal single-digit decline, indicating that a
significant decrease cannot be claimed. Furthermore, the figures for 2023 are approximately in line with pre-pandemic numbers, indicating that there has not been a substantial decrease in incidents.
It is more accurate to consider 2022 as an outlier year due to the pandemic situation and adverse weather conditions, as described in the previous paragraph. The current figures are approaching pre-pandemic levels and have not significantly decreased. Expert Manuela Soller states: “Our assessment is that declining numbers do not necessarily mean less violence or lower numbers in the past indicating less violence. The number of unreported cases is very high. Our services have become more well known, and societal awareness of the issue has increased. Therefore, we believe that the numbers have generally risen over the years.” This highlights the need for continued efforts to address and combat sexual and physical violence against girls and women.
Date Rape Drug Situation at Oktoberfest and Police Statistics on Assaults
In an interview with TAZ, another expert Lisa Löffler, who leads the “Sichere Wiesn” campaign, has stated that violence against women has neither increased nor decreased in recent years. There has been a decrease in victim-blaming and a higher willingness to intervene in cases of assault. According to Löffler, the number of confirmed reported incidents to the police has increased by approximately 25% compared to the previous year. With video surveillance at the Oktoberfest fair, there is a high chance of identifying perpetrators, making it worthwhile to file a report. In the interview, she mentions that the use of date rape drugs has risen – at least judging by the superficial indications displayed by the victims. However, it is not feasible to conduct a test for date rape drugs at the festival ground.
This assumption is also confirmed by Police Sergeant Christian Poganzki of the city of Munich. According to police records, reports of sexual assault have increased. In 2022, there were 60 reported cases including 3 incidents of rape; in 2023, the number has already risen to 80 including 8 cases of rape. However, Mr. Poganzki revises the assumption that the use of date rape drugs has increased. Only one confirmed report has been received this year. While he cannot provide a verified statement on the actual number of unreported cases, his opinion is that the figure remains significant and can only be reduced through effective prevention efforts. This explains the increase in reported cases as society becomes more aware and willing to report incidents – it does not imply a general increase in violence.
Conclusion
In short, the claim “Oktoberfest 2023: Numbers of assaults against girls and women significantly decrease” is uncheckable. While there has been a slight decrease in reported cases at the “Sichere Wiesn” campaign compared to the previous year, it is important to consider the broader context. When comparing the numbers to prepandemic years, it becomes evident that this decline is not significant. Therefore, it cannot be stated that the numbers have significantly decreased. Also, the number of reported incidents to the police increased and contradict the figures from the ‘Sichere Wiesn” initiative. Furthermore, the dark figure of unreported cases is so high that none of the experts could provide a verified statement on whether violence has decreased or increased. There are only speculations.
Exactly for that reason it is important to note that the statistic of “Sichere Wiesn” and also the police reports does not accurately represent the true prevalence of violence against girls and women at Oktoberfest due to the limited sample size and a significant number of unreported cases. It is essential to approach statistics like this with caution and continue efforts to address and combat sexual and physical violence against girls and women. By considering various factors such as attendance patterns, media dissemination, weather conditions and social awareness, a more comprehensive understanding of the overall situation can be gained.
In the meantime, journalist Lisa Metzger or the online magazine Merkur.de may have come to realize that they had misinterpreted the numbers and presented them in an incorrect context. Unfortunately, it was not possible to obtain a statement from the journalist regarding the deletion of the article. The article has been removed from the website at the conclusion of this fact-check-investigation and can now only be accessed through the internet archive “WaybackMachine“.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE – Neele Suckert and Allegra Düser, Jade University of Applied Sciences, Germany
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