In a Facebook post from March 21st, 2023, German AFD politician Jonas Dünzel claimed that 680,000 migrants are waiting in Libya to continue their journey to Europe, specifically Germany. This statement is mostly false as there are 680,000 migrants currently on route through Libya, however, Germany is currently not listed as a destination.
The claim
Claim owner Dünzel’s efforts are to appeal to European and German politicians that they should implement stricter migration laws, otherwise the influx of migrants would negatively affect Germany. While stating his opinion extensively in the video, he captions the post with this claim: “In Libya alone, more than 680.000 migrants are waiting to continue their journey to Europe / Germoney.” With the phrasing “Germoney” he merges Germany and money to implicate that people want to migrate there because of the wealth and social security they might get.
To back up his claim, Jonas Dünzel cited a report from the EU council for a Mechanism for the Operational Coordination of the External Dimension of Migration (MOCADEM) round table on January 13, 2023. MOCADEM was created in 2022 to discuss and propose operational actions in order to reach the EU’s migration control objectives. The document includes a presentation by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) on migration routes from and through Libya. According to the DTM report, the number 683,813 only reflects the total number of migrants in Libya, and further only mentions the main nationalities they have, not whether or not they will end up in Germany.
Claim owner Dünzel is a member of the Alternative for Germany (AFD) is a right-wing, nationalist political party in Germany, currently in opposition in the government. It is well known for its Euroscepticism and stance against immigration to Germany. The conservative party wants to protect Western identity and German culture. Their campaigns focus heavily on increasing protection against illegal immigration, and they have received public attention for spreading fear amongst the population against immigrants from certain countries or cultures.
Libya’s current migration climate
Libya is in fact a host to many migrant countries. According to a report released by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), it is estimated that 680,000 migrants currently stationed in Libya are mainly from Niger, Egypt , Sudan, Nigeria and Chad. This number has been repeated in numerous reports, and as the claim mentions it only represents the number of migrants and not their destination, which is claimed to be Germany. Based on recent statistics provided by Eurostat, Germany reported the largest number of immigrants in 2021, followed by Spain, France and Italy. However, reports for 2023 are inconclusive as to whether migrants from Libya will end up in Germany.
Based on the migrant arrivals reports currently available on the migrant trends from Libya into Europe released by DTM, as of May 22, 2023 64,780 Migrants have officially landed in Europe. The destinations being Italy, Spain, Bulgaria, Greece, and Cyprus. Currently, Germany is not listed as a destination country for these migrants.
IOM is an international organization for migration from the United Nations (UN) and provides annual world migration reports. The displacement tracking matrix (DTM) was created in 2016 to monitor migration flows in the country and the organization releases regular reports. The newest report of key findings on Libya migration already states a new number of 706.000 migrants currently in Libya. Due to the publishing date, Dünzel has not seen that report at the time of his Facebook post.
Oftentimes the border countries are not the planned destination for a lot of migrants, and they continue their travels through Europe. However, it is almost impossible to foresee where they end up, because of the varying regulations and rules of different European countries, migrants are sometimes unable to continue the journey to their desired destination. Additionally, a tragically large number of migrants do not even make it to the border of Europe. According to a IOM report, 441 people died on the central Mediterranean route in the first quarter of 2023 alone. In total, an estimated number of 20.000 people lost their lives on that route since 2014.
The outcome
In short, the original claim made indicated that 680,000 Libyan migrants are on route to Europe and specifically Germany. This can be classified as mostly false as it does not entirely reflect the migrant situation in Libya. The claim indicates that 680,000 migrants are currently stationed in Libya, this statement is true, as according to DTM and many other EU reports, this number is stated as the current number of migrants. However, the main objective of this claim is to emphasize the concern that Germany will be the main destination, for these migrants which is in fact false. According to the DTM Arrivals report as of May 22, 64,780 migrants have arrived in Europe; however, Germany is not listed as a destination country. It is currently inconclusive whether any of these migrants will in fact end up in Germany, making this claim mostly false.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE – Masahda Lochan-Aristide and Verena Buzek , Artevelde University of Applied Sciences, Gent, Belgium
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