On 5 March 2026, Roxana Mînzatu, Vice-President of the European Commission and Commissioner for Social Rights and Skills, Quality Jobs and Preparedness, made the following statement during a European Commission press conference: “Closing the gender gap in employment could mean an extra 10% in EU GDP per capita and creating more than 10 million jobs additional to what we have now by 2050.” [06:02–06:14] This statement needs to be viewed in a nuanced way, but it proves to be mostly true.
The gender employment gap refers to the difference between the employment rates of men and women. The statement was made at a press conference to present the EU Gender Equality Strategy 2026–2030. It was said in the context of European gender equality policy and serves to highlight the economic benefits of greater participation by women in the labour market. The promotion of gender equality is presented not only as a socio-political objective but also as an economic opportunity for the European Union, and is thus intended to further legitimise the EU measures set out.
Original source
No specific evidence for the figures was provided during the press conference itself. As Mînzatu did not provide any information in response to an enquiry, the most likely source is the study “Economic Benefits of Gender Equality in the European Union” by an EU agency, the European Institute for Gender Equality (EIGE).
The study in question was published in 2017 and models the effects of gender equality on the economy. The study concludes that greater gender equality would lead to somewhere between 6.3 million and 10.5 million additional jobs by 2050, approximately 70 % of which would be held by women. Furthermore, greater gender equality could lead to an increase in GDP per capita in the EU of between 6.1 and 9.6 %. According to EIGE, this increase stems from an improved employment rate, equal opportunities in the labour market and more women undertaking STEM education.
If measures were taken to close this gender gap, it could result in either a “slow improvement” by 2050, with a total of 6.27 million more jobs (4.5 million of which would be held by women), or a “rapid improvement”, with a total of 10.5 million more jobs (7.6 million of which would be held by women). In her statement, Mînzatu makes no distinction between “slow” and “rapid improvement”, but instead presents the results of the more favourable scenario.
Methodology used
The findings reached by the institute are based on the E3ME methodology. “E3ME is an empirical macroeconomic model tailored specifically to model outcomes at EU and Member-State levels.” The study modelled five pathways which, if implemented, could lead to these outcomes.
The following measures were selected: more women holding degrees in STEM subjects, improved working conditions for women, an increase in women’s wages and a rise in the fertility rate. Demographic change was also taken into account in the estimates. The data used for the research was sourced primarily from Eurostat.
The baseline or comparison scenario was based on the assumption that no measures would be taken and therefore no improvement would occur. A review of the study makes it clear that a 10% increase in GDP per capita can only be achieved if all measures were fully implemented in all EU Member States. This progress would need to be completed by 2030.
Verification through independent source
Many sources dealing with the topic of the gender employment gap draw on the EIGE study for their figures. This makes it difficult to find independent sources.
Mînzatu’s claim relates to two correlations: the correlation between the gender employment gap and GDP, and the correlation between GDP and new jobs. If we examine these two relationships, the statement can certainly be verified.
Studies from recent years confirm that closing the gender employment gap would increase the GDP. The EIGE report and a study by Eurofound highlight several studies from recent years that support these claims. Even though the studies mentioned provide different figures and estimates, it can be assumed that there is a correlation between the GDP and the employment rate. McKinsey & Company published a study on ‘Women in Tech’, which also explains that the GDP would benefit from closing the gender gap in employment.
Mînzatu’s statement refers to a figure of 10 %, and although this exact number is not substantiated in other works, it is nevertheless confirmed that the GDP would benefit.
If we now look at the link between the GDP and the number of new jobs, this too can be examined through various studies. The NBB’s Economics Report explains that as the GDP rises, the number of people in employment increases. The article states that GDP and employment are interrelated. Belgium is used as an example here, and the study’s findings show that a 1 % rise in the GDP would lead to a 0.5 % increase in employment. These figures are in line with the European average. McKinsey & Company also carried out a study on this topic and concluded that around 10 million new jobs would be needed in Western Europe if the gender gap is to be closed. This number is close to the original estimate, even though it refers only to Western Europe and not to the EU as a whole.
Conclusion
Roxana Mînzatu’s statement can overall be classified as ‘mostly true’. Several independent studies confirm that closing the gender employment gap could lead to a significant positive increase in both EU GDP per capita and the number of jobs.
The specific figures cited – a 10 % increase in EU GDP per capita and the creation of more than 10 million additional jobs by 2050 – are based on a study and a model calculation that examined the economic potential of completely closing the gender employment gap. However, this is a very optimistic scenario that would only be achievable under favourable conditions. In practice, political resistance, societal roles and structural barriers continue to exist, making full equality in the labour market difficult to achieve. The figures cited should therefore be understood as representing potential rather than a realistic forecast.
To achieve this objective, the EU’s Gender Equality Strategy 2026-2030 sets out a range of measures. These include promoting equal pay, improving work-life balance, expanding childcare provision, increasing women’s labour force participation, and combating gender stereotypes in education and the workplace. These measures can help to reduce the employment gap, but do not guarantee that the projected outcomes will be achieved by 2050, even if all measures are implemented. Overall, the statement is therefore essentially accurate, but it represents a theoretical best-case scenario whose full implementation is rather unlikely in reality.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE © Flavia Zöllin, Julia Speller & Hanna Neigert, Stuttgart Media University, Germany
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