“It is still possible for us to reduce emissions in this decade to such an extent that we can meet the 1.5 degree target.” That is how Olaf Scholz began his speech at the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference. He also mentioned the technologies that are available to help us achieve it. A look at the facts shows: this is mostly false.
In 2015, an agreement was reached at the UN climate change conference in Paris to reduce global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible, but well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial age. Almost all countries in the world are involved in this agreement. A total of 195 states have committed to taking measures to promote a climate-friendly global economy. In 2023, the rise in the global average temperature reached a new record of 1.48 degrees Celsius. This had enormous consequences, such as heatwaves and droughts, as well as extreme storms like “Otis” and “Daniel”. The increased number of climate disasters raises the question of how realistic it is to achieve the 1.5 degree target when the effects of global warming are already so noticeable.
The carbon dioxide equivalent
The Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), explained at the World Leaders Climate Action Summit that the 1.5 degree target is hanging “on a very slender thread”. According to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record level of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. The CO₂ equivalent, short CO₂e is a unit of measurement used to compare the climate impact of various greenhouse gases such as methane or hydrogen fluoride with CO₂. It provides a standardized way to quantify and communicate emissions, highlighting the urgent need for action. Emissions would have to be reduced by 7.5 % annually by 2035 to keep the temperature of global warming to 1.5 °C.
The probability of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by this amount is low. A look at the history of increase in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year makes this clear. Between 2010 and 2020, the increase amounted to 2.9 GTCO₂e per year. In order to achieve the 1.5 degree target, a valueof 33 GTCO₂e is required. In view of the 57.1 GTCO₂e achieved in 2023, such a reduction is rather unlikely.
The emissions gap forecast for 2030 highlights the challenge of meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement. Each country has submitted a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, which defines the specific targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, according to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report, if all current pledges are fulfilled, there will still be a gap of 19 GT carbon dioxide equivalent to achieve the 1.5-degree target. This indicates that significantly more greenhouse gas reductions are necessary to stay within this limit. While reducing emissions to this extent by 2030 is highly challenging, Jim Skea, Chair of the IPCC, emphasizes that it remains possible if already developed technologies are applied consistently and political measures are drastically tightened.
Technologies
The technologies mentioned by Scholz and Skea focus primarily on solar and wind energy, which can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) published the following figures: In 2023, the total global renewable energy capacity amounted to 3.869.705 megawatts. Of this, 1.017.199 MW were attributable to wind energy, 1.418.969 MW to solar energy and 1.412.093 MW to photovoltaic systems. As these numbers show, the global achievement of building more on renewable energies is on a good path. However, in order to integrate these data into the process of switching from fossil fuels to renewable energies the figures from the International Renewable Energy Agency can help. According to IRENA, for the 1.5 degree target to be achieved with these technologies, 68% of the global electricity supply would have to be covered by renewable energies by 2030. In comparison, this share was only 28% in 2020. Wind and solar energy are promoted and the power supply relies more and more on it, but it still needs further expansion.
The NDC’s and political will
The NDC’s provide a framework to coordinate national efforts to mitigate climate change and achieve measurable progress. According to IRENA, the implementation of the current NDC’s could reduce global emissions by 6% by 2030 and 57% by 2050 compared to 2022.
However, these planned measures are still not enough: Even if the current targets are met in full, 16 gigatons of CO₂e would still be emitted too much in 2050. To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, CO₂ emissions would have to be reduced by a total of 37 gigatons compared to 2022 levels. This massive reduction requires a fundamental change in the global energy supply and more ambitious measures than those planned to date.
In an interview, meteorologist Professor Dr. Mojib Latif emphasizes the necessity of moving away from fossil fuels in the climate change debate. He explains that while this transition is essential, achieving the 1.5-degree or even the 2-degree targets would require fundamental societal and economic changes, which are often met with resistance. Latif points out that the current geopolitical conditions and lack of decisive action make it highly unlikely to meet these targets. Instead, he considers a global temperature increase of around 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century as a more realistic outcome. He warns that such a scenario would lead to severe consequences, including more frequent extreme weather events and significant impacts on ecosystems and human livelihoods, stressing the urgent need for stronger international cooperation and immediate action.
Conclusion
The 1.5 degree target must be regarded as unrealistic based on an examination of the figures to date and Latif’s forecast. A look at previous carbon dioxide equivalent emissions alone shows that such a drastic reduction by 2030 is simply not possible. Global efforts and investments in renewable energies are as a matter of fact promising and will make a major contribution to reducing CO₂ emissions globally as Skea said. However, achieving the goal of 1.5 degrees is highly unlikely. Significant progress can be made, especially through strict measures. But the target set out in the Paris Agreement of not exceeding 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial age will not be achievable.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE | Lara Reichel, Hochschule der Medien Stuttgart, Germany
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