In numerous media appearances, Jan van Aken, co-chair of German party Die Linke, has expressed his opposition to increasing Germany’s defence budget. He argues this point by highlighting the superiority of the European NATO states over Russia, citing a yearly difference of $130 billion in defence spending. This statement turned out to be mostly false.
Van Aken made this statement in this form on the talk shows Markus Lanz (37:23) and hart aber fair (59:55), in newspaper interviews with ZEIT and taz, as well as in a radio program on NDRinfo (05:00). He consistently cites two figures to support his claim: that the European NATO states spend $430 billion, while Russia spends $300 billion (already adjusted for purchasing power) on defence, yearly.
Image 1: Screenshot of a translated tweet by Jan van Aken from January 3, 2025 citing these numbers
Defence Spending of Russia
Van Aken is citing a publication dated November 11, 2024, by the environmental organization Greenpeace as the source for the figures he mentions, as is evident from a tweet in which he links to it. Greenpeace, in turn, bases its figures for Russia on an estimate by the peace research institute SIPRI, which puts military spending at 9.3 trillion rubles for 2023. This is converted into approximately 100 billion US dollars and then adjusted for purchasing power differences, resulting in a figure of around 300 billion US dollars.
The USD-RUB exchange rate was around 90 at the end of 2023. According to the World Bank, the purchasing power adjustment factor for Russia in 2023 was 0.31. Based on this calculation, arriving at a figure in the range of 300 billion US dollars, depending on the exact timing of the exchange rate, is plausible.
Defence Spending of European NATO Countries
Greenpeace contrasts the Russian purchasing-power-adjusted figure of 300 billion USD with 430 billion USD, which must also refer to the year 2023. This amount is intended to represent NATO excluding the United States (p. 4), as well as – more narrowly – excluding both the United States and Canada, through the terms “NATO Europe” and “European NATO countries” (pp. 14 and 54, respectively). As their source, they cite NATO’s preliminary estimates from a press release dated June 12, 2024. At the time of the Greenpeace publication, this was NATO’s most recent estimate for defence spending in 2023 and was only replaced by the final figures published in the Secretary General’s Annual Report on April 24, 2025.
However, this NATO source puts the figure for 2023 at only around 420 billion USD excluding the United States, and around 390 billion USD when further narrowed to “European NATO countries”, excluding Canada as well.
Yet the 430 billion USD figure appears in two other contexts, which could have caused confusion. First, it appears as the amount for defence spending excluding the USA, but for the year 2024 and in 2015 prices and exchange rates. Greenpeace also cites a corresponding NATO graphic (image 2) in their publication. Second, the figure appears for Europe and Canada for the year 2023 in the NATO Secretary General’s annual report dated March 14, 2024 – published around three months earlier. However, Greenpeace does not refer to this outdated source.
In the original version of the publication, Greenpeace actually cited the correct figure of 420 billion USD at one point (p. 14), but used the incorrect 430 billion at two others (pp. 4 & 54). In March 2025, even that correct mention was changed to the incorrect 430 billion. On the other hand, already on February 11th 2025 Greenpeace changed a website post about the publication adding the correct number of 420 billion, which still is mentioned right now, while not including Canada.
In response to an inquiry, Greenpeace explained that the mention of the figures was a mistake, but “the argument and the conclusions drawn by the study are not undermined by the $10 billion discrepancy.” Furthermore, the publicly available data, including that provided by NATO, is imprecise, which means only a rough overall picture can be drawn. The fact that Canada – whose defense budget is included in the $420 billion – is not explicitly mentioned at every point is described as a pragmatic decision.
As we show in our blog post, these simplifications – and also both the correct and incorrect figures, each using broader and narrower definitions of country groupings – have been widely picked up by the media outlets.
Classifying these numbers
As Greenpeace accurately reflects based on SIPRI, Russia’s official figures are subject to a high degree of uncertainty due to secrecy, off-budget expenditures, war economy, and more. This makes them significantly less reliable compared to NATO figures. However, SIPRI’s estimates are generally considered a reliable educated guess.
The value for Russia converted by Greenpeace for comparison purposes may vary somewhat, depending on the exchange rates used, as these fluctuated noticeably in 2023. Nonetheless, other analyses – such as that by Holger Janusch in the Journal for International Politics and Society, published four months before Greenpeace – also arrive at a similar ratio. He refers to a defence spending ratio of “less than 2:1” for NATO excluding the US compared to Russia, which aligns with Greenpeace’s figure of 1.4:1.
The recent annual report of the NATO Secretary General for 2024, published on April 24, 2025, with data as of February 4, 2025, released for the first time the final figures for 2023. In the previous release (the June 2024 press statement), these had still been estimates. The finalized expenditures differ by less than one billion and are thus still rounded to $420 billion.
As Greenpeace correctly notes, with references to SIPRI and NATO, the figures have been and will continue to be subject to major changes. According to the 2024 annual report, NATO estimates over $520 billion in defence spending for Europe and Canada in 2024, up from $420 billion. SIPRI expects Russia’s spending to rise from 9.3 trillion rubles to 12.7 trillion in 2024. The comparison from 2022 to 2023 also shows significant shifts, meaning the figures in the original claim can only be applied to 2023 specifically.
Conclusion
Jan van Aken’s claim that “adjusted for purchasing power, the European NATO states spend 430 billion dollars annually on the military, compared to Russia’s 300 billion” is inaccurate in three key aspects:
- The correct latest figure is 420 billion USD, not 430 billion, and
- it refers to European NATO states and Canada as a non-European NATO member. Without Canada, the number would be around 390 billion USD.
- The wording „annually“ or „every year“ is misleading. These are not constant figures and they only apply to 2023. Military spending was significantly lower before 2023 and is projected to be significantly higher after 2023, both for NATO and for Russia.
An accurate claim would be: „Adjusted for purchasing power, 420 billion US dollars in military spending by European NATO states and Canada compare to 300 billion US dollars by Russia in 2023.“ The original statement is therefore mostly false.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE © Enrico Giardina and Maria Cabras | Jade University of Applied Sciences Wilhelmshaven, Germany
Leave your comments, thoughts and suggestions in the box below. Take note: your response is moderated.
