On July 2nd, 2016, roughly three weeks before the Brexit referendum, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron, appeared on a TV debate broadcast by the English channel Sky News. During his appearance, he urged his fellow citizens to vote against the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). He claimed that „it would make our economy smaller, it would cost jobs, we would be poorer as a country“ if the UK exited the EU. Four years after Brexit officially came into force, the part of this statement relating to jobs can be categorised as ‘true’.
Although this statement dates back to 2016, it remains relevant and worth examining, as the question of whether the UK would benefit from the EU or not was crucial in the Brexit debate. Today, we can see whether the cautioners or supporters were right. In a report from January 2024, Cambridge Econometrics (Camecon), a global economic consultancy specializing in research services, compared two scenarios: one portraying the UK economy with Brexit and the other without it. It was commissioned by well-known remain campaigner Sadiq Khan. The report highlights how the UK labour market has evolved to date and how it might develop up to 2035 if the Brexit had not occurred. According to the report, by 2023, there were approximately 1.8 million fewer jobs in the UK due to Brexit, a 4.8% difference. By 2035, Brexit is projected to lead to nearly 3 million fewer jobs, a deviation of around 7.4%.
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Brexit ended Free Movement of workers
Under the EU’s Free Movement of workers, EU citizens who wished to work in other EU member states benefited from many advantages, including free choice of employment and legal protections ensuring equal working conditions as nationals. With the UK’s departure from the EU, the free movement of workers between the UK and the EU was abolished.
According to a 2022 report by the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, this has contributed to labour shortages in low-wage sectors within the UK. Before Brexit, many jobs in low-wage industries, such as agriculture and warehouse logistics, were held by EU citizens. Now, with the end of free movement, EU citizens face numerous obstacles to working in the UK, and British employers struggle to fill positions.
Impacts on the National Health Service (NHS)
Another example that illustrates the effects of Brexit on the UK labour market is the National Health Service (NHS), the backbone of the UK’s healthcare system. In 2021, 37,035 doctors from the EU and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) were employed in the UK. Without Brexit, based on pre-Brexit recruitment trends, this figure would have been 41,320 (4,285 more than with Brexit), according to a 2022 study by the Nuffield Trust.
The Nuffield Trust cites reasons for this discrepancy, including uncertainty during the referendum campaign and the years following about whether EU and EFTA doctors would retain their rights to live and work in the UK. Additionally, the changes to UK immigration rules from 2020 introduced higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles for visas for these doctors. The Nuffield Trust notes that the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking in 2020 and 2021, had little impact on these figures. This example highlights some reasons why many EU citizens are now deciding not to work in the UK due to Brexit.
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Conclusion
Due to our research the labour market in the UK has in fact seen a considerable loss of jobs as a result of Brexit. The data shows that the Brexit has resulted in a loss of about 1.8 million jobs by 2023, with nearly 3 million fewer jobs predicted for 2035. Therefore, one can say that Cameron’s claim the Brexit would harm the UK’s job market has proven to be correct.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE | Robin Feig, Hochschule der Medien Stuttgart, Germany
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