On January 18, 2023, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Germany aims to become one of the first industrialized nations to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. This statement is mostly true.
Legal Framework and National Targets
The Climate Change Act (KSG) enshrines the goal of climate neutrality by 2045. It stipulates that greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by at least 65% by 2030 and by at least 88% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. From 2050 onwards, Germany aims for a negative emissions balance, meaning it would remove more greenhouse gases using natural sinks than it emits. This fact-check examines the claim that Germany will be climate-neutral by 2045. In his speech, Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasizes that Germany can achieve this goal without compromising its economic strength. He points to the rapid implementation of major infrastructure projects, such as the construction of new LNG terminals, which will also be used for hydrogen in the future. He also highlights the legal prioritization of renewable energy expansion and the acceleration of approval processes. Key measures include the planned expansion of wind energy, the electricity grid, and the hydrogen economy to drive the transition forward. Our fact-check evaluates whether these measures are sufficient to meet climate targets and identifies potential challenges—particularly in sectors like transportation and buildings. By analyzing official forecasts, progress made so far, and existing obstacles, we provide a well-founded assessment of the feasibility of this goal.
Progress and Challenges in Key Areas
- Energy Sector:
• Grid Expansion:
In 2023, Germany approved approximately 1,400 kilometers of new power lines, marking a fourfold increase compared to 2021. (Bundesnetzagentur)
By the end of 2024, the total approved length is expected to reach around 2,800 kilometers. (Bundesnetzagentur)
Currently, about 5,500 kilometers of power lines are in or before a planning approval procedure with the Bundesnetzagentur. (Bundesnetzagentur)
These procedures are often delayed due to objections, hindering the construction of new lines.
Despite these challenges, grid expansion remains a central element of Germany’s climate protection strategy to ensure a climate-neutral energy supply by 2045.
Current plans aim to approve approximately 4,400 kilometers of high-voltage lines by the end of 2025.
These measures are crucial for integrating renewable energies into the power grid and enhancing supply security. (Bundesnetzagentur)
• Renewable Energy:
In 2023, renewable energy sources accounted for more than half of Germany’s gross electricity consumption for the first time. According to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK), the share of renewables was over 50%, marking an increase from 46% in 2022. This rise is primarily due to the expansion of wind and solar energy, which together make a significant contribution to reducing dependence on fossil fuels. In the first half of 2024, the share of renewable energies in gross electricity consumption even reached 58%, setting a new record.
- Transport Sector:
Emissions in this sector remain persistently high. A report by Agora Energiewende and data from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) predict a significant reduction gap for the sector, with a cumulative shortfall of 180–210 million tons of CO₂ by 2030.
Differences in Forecasts and Estimates: In Germany, estimates for the necessary investments in the transport sector vary significantly, depending on the underlying assumptions and methodologies. A study by the German Institute for Standardization (DIN) estimates the annual investment requirement at around €870 billion to achieve the climate targets in the transport sector. (DIFU) In contrast, the German Institute for Urban Studies (Difu) estimates the investment required for the maintenance and expansion of rail networks, roads, and pathways in German cities, counties, and municipalities by 2030 at approximately €372 billion. (DIFU) These differences arise from varying assumptions, such as the pace of vehicle electrification or the use of synthetic fuels. Another factor is the differing consideration of infrastructure projects and climate protection measures in the respective studies.
A report by the Federal Court of Auditors points out that projections for emissions in the transport sector without additional climate protection measures vary, increasing uncertainty in the estimates. (Bundesrechnungshof) These differing estimates highlight the complexity of the necessary measures and the need to carefully examine the underlying assumptions in order to assess the feasibility of the projected outcomes.
- Building Sector:
High costs and a lack of skilled workers hinder progress in reducing emissions in the building sector. The Federal Climate Protection Report 2024 highlights a notable emissions gap but does not provide exact figures.
Financial and Technological Requirements
Achieving climate neutrality by 2045 requires substantial annual investments. Estimates suggest that Germany needs about €240 billion annually, primarily for infrastructure, clean technologies, and climate adaptation. A McKinsey study forecasts this amount as part of the total required €6 trillion for full decarbonization by 2045. (McKinsey study)
Regarding Germany’s capacity to finance these investments, the McKinsey report indicates that the transition to climate neutrality is achievable at net-zero costs. This means that the additional investments required for decarbonization can be offset by savings from avoided climate change impacts and reduced energy costs. However, this outcome depends on implementing systematic and concerted measures across all sectors. (Cleanwire)
Therefore, while the financial burden is significant, the McKinsey analysis suggests that Germany can undertake these investments without incurring additional net costs, provided that the transition is managed effectively.
International Comparisons and Feasibility
Germany’s 2045 target is more ambitious than the European Union’s 2050 goal. Countries like Sweden and Norway have successfully integrated renewable energies with CCS technologies, demonstrating feasible pathways to achieving ambitious climate targets. (“Net-Zero Germany”-report by McKinsey & Company)
Carbon-Neutral Neighborhoods
Initiatives like Bahnstadt in Heidelberg exemplify cross-border efforts toward carbon-neutral living, featuring energy-efficient buildings and green infrastructure. („The Rise of Carbon-Neutral Neighborhoods“, TIME)
Conclusion
The claim that Germany will achieve climate neutrality by 2045 is supported by legislation and a comprehensive climate policy framework. However, significant implementation challenges remain, particularly in transport and infrastructure. Integrating technologies like carbon capture, storage, and hydrogen imports could provide viable solutions to achieve these goals. The ambition to achieve full decarbonization by 2045 requires substantial financial and technological investments.
Verdict: Mostly true. The goal is achievable but depends on decisive action, investments, and consistent implementation of climate policy.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE | Johanna Blessinger, Hochschule der Medien Stuttgart, Germany
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