An article in the German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) by Bjørn Lomborg from 2013 claims that the EU is spending trillions of euros to reduce global warming by just 0.05 degrees Celsius. According to current research, the costs could be significantly higher. The effect of the measures on global warming remains unclear. Scientific forecasts come to different conclusions. Therefore the claim turns out to be uncheckable.
The article refers to the effectiveness of the European Union’s 2020 strategy. At that time projections were based on immense temperature increases. In his 2016 paper “Impact of Current Climate Proposals”, Lomborg himself puts the temperature rise at over 4.5 degrees Celsius in any case. The Paris climate agreement was based on 3.5 degrees Celsius, and the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is now talking about 2.5 degrees Celsius. The Climate Action Tracker considers the chances of meeting the 1.5 degree target to be highly unrealistic. But instead, the EU’s climate targets should keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. This forecast ist significantly less pessimistic than Lomberg’s. However, it remains to be seen which forecast will come true.
EU climate financing
According to the FAZ article, the EU 2020 strategy, which aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% and increase the share of renewable energy to 20% by 2020, will cost around €185 billion per year. Over the entire 21st century, the cost could be around €15 trillion. The figures are based on a 2012 cost-benefit analysis of the EU 2020 strategy by Richard S.J. Tol.
The Commission staff working document on the potential improvement of the EU’s 2030 climate targets shows that the cost of the 2030 climate targets alone is €336 billion per year on average, assuming a start date of 2015. The projections would reduce investment to €280 billion between 2031 and 2050. Extrapolating the averages alone would produce the trillions of euros described in the FAZ article. Around €10 trillion would be spent by 2050. The goal is still to achieve the 1.5 degree target.
Higher costs are possible
However, these figures need to be seen in the context of the long-term economic and environmental benefits of climate policy. Andre Lachmund, climate protection manager for the city of Wilhelmshaven, says that the costs of missing previous targets will continue to rise. Every year that the EU waits or misses the climate targets, the future costs increase, which is why the cost projections could even be exceeded. Ultimately, however, it remains a forecast that cannot yet be accurately assessed.
Losses from climate change
Prevention is also part of climate change mitigation. Just in 2020, economic losses due to climate change can be estimated at a total of 12 billion euros, according to Eurostat. In Germany, the damage caused by climate change between 2000 and 2021 will amount to at least 145 billion euros. By 2050, the forecast is between 280 and 900 billion euros. This is the result of an analysis by the project “Costs of climate change impacts in Germany”. As climate change progresses and the potential for disasters increases, this figure is likely to rise further. This aspect should also be considered when assessing the costs of climate policy, as the EU targets also include prevention measures. Andre Lachmund also says that the city of Wilhelmshaven will create a position to deal with prevention measures. However, Richard S.J. Tol’s original source does not give this classification. This does not falsify the figures quoted in the FAZ, but a differentiated view of the figures is nevertheless appropriate.
Conclusion
The EU will definitely have to spend trillions to reduce climate protection measures. The FAZ is right, the EU confirms the figures in the working papers. But the figures are still just a prediction. It is not clear how much money the EU will spend on climate protection measures. When it comes to predicting the effectiveness of EU measures, current forecasts contradict Lomberg’s. Ultimately, the statement that the EU would spend several trillion euros to reduce the temperature rise by 0.05 degrees is a prediction. The effect will be judged differently according to today’s results, but precise statements will have to be made in the future.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE – Nicole Scherbakow and Marius Börgmann, Jade University of Applied Sciences, Germany
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