Climate change is one of the biggest problems in the world, but it can no longer be stopped. The political goals are at risk and the resulting consequences are not yet predictable.
Homes destroyed and at least 135 deceased people: In July 2021, Europe looked on in horror at the idyllic Ahr Valley in Germany. The reason was the flood of the century in Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia, in which large parts of an entire region fell victim to the catastrophic flooding.
As climate change progresses, experts expect such extreme weather conditions to occur more and more frequently. “This mainly happens through greenhouse gas emissions,” explains climate scientist Dr. Susanne Nawrath. She has been scientific exhibition manager at the Klimahaus Bremerhaven since 2007 and previously worked on the 4th report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Greenhouse gas emissions are carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels. “The carbon dioxide was already in the atmosphere at the time, was then absorbed by plants and stored in the soil. We are now taking it out again and unintentionally recreating a climate that existed millions of years ago,” explains Nawrath.
1.5 degree target barely achievable
As the scientist explains, global warming is currently around 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times. “We will reach at least 1.5 degrees,” says the scientist. However, she assumes that global warming could rise to 2 degrees. In 2015, the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, which includes the target that global warming will only rise to 1.5 degrees by 2030. All countries in the world are bound by this target.
However, according to the 6th Assessment Report of the United Nations institution, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this target is almost impossible to achieve. “If we’re lucky, we’ll stay below 2 degrees, and if we’re unlucky, global warming will rise even higher,” says the scientist. She points out that climate change is currently most pronounced during the period of increase. “If you look at the climate models, what we perceive as an extremely warm summer today will always be like this in a few years’ time,” predicts Nawrath. She points out that it means there will be more and more heat events and that droughts and extreme rainfall will increase. “If you realize what’s coming, you could get depressed,” she says, speaking clearly about the consequences of climate change.
As the scientist reports, it can be observed in Europe that weather conditions are lasting longer. The reason for this is the warming of the Arctic: “As a result, the jet stream, which determines our weather, is weakening. As a result, the weather stays in one place for longer,” explains Nawrath.
Expansion of freeways instead of local public transport
The IPCC report accuses European politicians of not acting consistently enough. The 93 scientists who worked on the report clearly state that politicians must take immediate and stronger action. German expert Susanne Nawrath is of the same opinion: “We need to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions to zero as quickly as possible.”
“We need to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions to zero as quickly as possible.”
Dr. Susanne Nawrath
Although Nawrath mentions that there is a law on this in Germany, “you do get the impression that climate change is not being taken that seriously.” She criticizes German policy: “Some of the targets that we have set ourselves are not even being attempted.” The scientist explains that no serious measures are being taken in some areas and cites the transport sector as an example: “They are thinking about further expanding the freeways instead of thinking in terms of local public transport.”
Nawrath also refers to the climate money that was actually planned by the German government, which has still not been implemented. She goes on to say that there has been talk for years of states wanting to abolish climate-unfriendly subsidies, but this has either not yet been implemented or is not progressing slowly. “There is an incredible amount to do and everything is very complex, but some regulations are also slowing down the energy transition.”
Climate change can only be combated globally
In her opinion, climate change can only be tackled successfully if all countries in the world work together to tackle the problem. She emphasizes that real effects can only be achieved through political measures. According to Nawrath, it is also good if each individual acts in a climate-conscious way in their everyday life, but this is partly counteracted by actual climate protection measures. “If something is saved, it is emitted elsewhere. At a political level, the framework conditions must be set so that things move in the right direction,” the scientist demands.
In this respect, she cites the CO2 price as an example. In this case, the costs are included in the prices of the products. “This then becomes a problem again when you think about global trade, because individual countries don’t want to push ahead.” According to her, a global agreement is actually needed. She adds: “However, as the Paris Climate Agreement is regulated in such a way that each country decides for itself what it will do, progress in this regard is very slow.”
“We can’t achieve 1.5 degrees, but…“
But what can give people hope when it comes to climate change and the as yet unpredictable consequences? It’s not easy for Nawrath either, because on the one hand she knows that things will get worse and that climate change can no longer be avoided. But on the other hand, she was given great hope when politicians decided that emissions had to be reduced to zero. She also believes that energy from renewable sources is much cheaper to produce than it was a few years ago and that no new coal-fired power plants are being built in China or India, for example. “These are points that will lead to changes,” emphasizes the scientist and concludes by predicting: “It’s all very complex. I estimate that we won’t achieve the 1.5 degree target, but if global warming stays between 1.5 and 2 degrees, we can probably still avoid the very worst effects.”
RESEARCH I ARTICLE – Anton Steinmann & Johannes Vehren, Jade University of Applied Sciences, Germany
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