Europe is facing various challenges: Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the re-election of Donald Trump are causing uncertainty. Wolfgang Ischinger, former German ambassador to the United States, warns in an interview with Sandra Maischberger: “We have a security problem in Europe. We have a noticeable, significant gap in defense spending over the next few years.” The EU Factcheck shows that this statement is true.
Ischinger’s statement was made during the “Maischberger” Show on ARD on November 12, 2024, where central security policy challenges were discussed. He refers to Europe’s security in the context of the war in Ukraine and the geopolitical effects of Donald Trump’s election. He also warns of a financial gap in Germany’s defense spending.
This factcheck is particularly relevant as Europe faces security concerns due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. It is crucial to assess whether European defense strategies are sufficiently prepared. It is also important to clarify whether the German defense budget is sustainable enough to meet its NATO obligations in the long term, especially as temporary funding measures expire.
The two main points of Ischinger’s statement – the geopolitical uncertainty and the financial gap in defense – are examined in detail in the following factcheck.
Europe’s security problem: A geopolitical dilemma
Regarding the “security problem in Europe,” Ischinger does not mention a specific source but later on he refers to former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Stoltenberg has repeatedly pointed out in various speeches the worsening security situation in the EU and emphasized the urgency of strengthening defense capabilities. In his speech at the NATO Industry Forum on October 25, 2023, Stoltenberg said: “So now we need to ramp up production. To meet Ukraine’s needs. But also to strengthen our own deterrence and defense. […] We face a more aggressive Russia. A more coercive China. And a more unstable world. So, we must adapt for the long term.”
Prof. Dr. Hubertus Bardt, CEO of the German Economic Institute, explains in the expert interview: “We have a changed security situation.” This is due in part to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which underscores the need to further strengthen security and invest more in defense. The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president also poses an additional challenge to Europe’s security stability, though the concrete effects of this election on Europe remain uncertain.
In addition to geopolitical uncertainties, the financial dimension plays a central role. NATO responded to the changing security situation by introducing the 2% target in 2023, which requires all member states to spend 2% of their GDP on defense. But how well is Germany meeting this commitment?
NATO’s 2% target: A narrow success for Germany
Ischinger describes during the interview that Germany has only reached the NATO target by a very narrow margin. It can be inferred that his warning about a “large gap in defense spending” in the coming years is likely related to the achievement of the NATO target, specifically Germany’s defense spending. He highlights that in the future, there are likely to be deficits and financing problems, as it may be difficult to meet long-term commitments.
What does the future hold?
To better understand the financial situation, it’s useful to take a look at Germany’s defense budget planning. In 2014, the Ministry of Defense’s spending was 33.14 billion euros. In 2024, Germany will spend approximately 72 billion euros on defense, according to Bundestag.de. Of that, 51.95 billion euros will go toward the regular defense budget and another 20 billion euros will come from the Bundeswehr Special Fund for the procurement of military equipment (Einzelplan 14). The German government has informed NATO that they will spend 90.6 billion euros on defense, which corresponds to the target of 2% of GDP. However, there is an uncertainty of 11.4 billion euros, the exact source and financing of which are not transparent. Media reports suggest that Germany may be including items from other ministries in its defense spending. Bardt explains that “accounting loopholes may have been used.” NATO has not specified exactly what needs to be reported and what does not.
Without the special fund, Germany would not have reached the 2% target in 2024. The Bundeswehr’s 19th Armaments Report states that 86.6 billion of the 100 billion euros had already been spent by the reporting date. This means that less than 20 billion euros remain. The Report assumes that the Bundeswehr’s special fund will be fully utilised after 2028. This is also confirmed by the German government’s budget 2025. This raises the question of how the target will continue to be financed. According to Bardt, there are two options: either the funds must be provided from the current budget, or new debts must be taken on. He emphasizes that national security is a core state responsibility that must be secured in the long term – not through one-off loans like the special fund.
Conclusion
Wolfgang Ischinger’s statement is substantiated. Europe is indeed facing significant security policy challenges due to geopolitical uncertainties, such as Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the potential shifts in NATO’s dynamics following Donald Trump’s re-election. Germany has met the NATO 2% defense spending target for 2024, but only through the temporary use of the Bundeswehr’s special fund, which will be depleted after 2028. Without this special measure, sustaining the target will be challenging, and long-term financing gaps are likely to emerge unless structural solutions are implemented. Both the geopolitical uncertainties and the financial vulnerabilities in defense spending confirm the accuracy of Ischinger’s assessment. Therefore, the statement is rated as true.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE | Lara Klos, Hochschule der Medien Stuttgart, Germany
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