On February 12, 2026, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, spoke at the press conference following the EU Leaders Retreat at Alden Castle in Biesen, Belgium. She said: “The emission trading system has clear benefits. It has been introduced in 2005 and since then the emissions have gone down by 39%. The sectors covered by ETS1 have grown by 71%.“ While the numbers should have been correctly attributed to the time from 1990 until today, the claim that the trading system has benefits is still supported by the data.
At the meeting, EU leaders gathered to discuss ways to strengthen economic growth in Europe. The Federal Environment Agency defines the European Emissions Trading System (ETS) as the EU’s key climate protection instrument. Its goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while promoting economic growth. “Sectors” refers to the areas covered by the ETS, such as electricity and water production, as well as intra-European air and maritime transport.
The German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt) explains: “The EU ETS1 is a market-based instrument that reduces emissions of climate-damaging gases in Europe. Operators of large energy plants and energy-intensive industrial facilities, as well as aircraft operators and shipping companies, participate in the EU ETS1 in Germany.” Von der Leyen highlights the ETS as a key instrument of EU climate policy and competitiveness in order to counter criticism regarding the costs of the ETS. Additionally, her statement serves to legitimize the EU’s climate strategy. In her speech, she defends the ETS and its achievements with the core message that decarbonization and economic growth are not mutually exclusive. Decarbonization refers to the transition of an economy from the use of fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, as well as the reduction and eventual elimination of carbon dioxide emissions. With her statement, Von der Leyen is primarily addressing internal stakeholders, such as the European Parliament and the member states, but also key economic actors, industry associations, and the international public.
This fact check focuses on the following aspects: emissions in sectors subject to the ETS sunk by 39%, the economic sectors covered by ETS1 have grown by 71% and lastly, if the ETS has clear benefits.
Trends in EU greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth since 1990
In her speech, Ursula von der Leyen likely refers to figures from the “Annual European Union Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024 and Inventory Document 2026.” This report is prepared by the European Environment Agency (EEA) on behalf of the European Commission. The EEA is an agency of the European Union and provides valuable insights into the state of Europe’s environment.
The EEA report 04/26 documents the trend in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union, that is, in all 27 member states, between 1990 and 2024. The report includes measurements of all anthropogenic, or human-caused, emissions. Emissions are gases released into the environment that contribute to global warming. In the report, emissions are presented in the unit MtCO2-eq (million tons of CO2 equivalent). This is calculated by multiplying the amount of a gas by its specific global warming potential, which indicates how many tons of CO2 would have the same climate impact as one ton of the respective gas. In the first measurement in 1990, greenhouse gas emissions stood at 4068 MtCO2-eq. In the most recent measurement in 2024, the figure was 2786 MtCO2-eq. The change in emissions from 1990 to 2024 can be calculated as follows:
((amount 2024 – amount 1990) / amount 1990) x 100 = change in %
((2786 – 4608) / 4608) x 100 = minus 39.54%
Total greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 were thus 39.5% below the 1990 level. In her statement, however, Ursula von der Leyen refers to emissions data since the introduction of the ETS in 2005. In 2005, total emissions amounted to 4154 MtCO2-eq. This leads to the following calculation:
((amount 2024 – amount 2005) / amount 2005) x 100 = change in %
((2786 – 4154) / 4154) x 100 = minus 32.9%
From the introduction of the ETS in 2005 to the most recent measurement in 2024, a reduction of only about 33% has been observed.
The figures cited in Ursula von der Leyen’s statement regarding the trend in greenhouse gas emissions have been misrepresented and are therefore wrong. She should have either referred to the trend since measurements began in 1990 or stated that the reduction since 2005 as 33%. Nevertheless, the message behind her statement, namely that greenhouse gas emissions have continued to decline since the introduction of the ETS and that the ETS therefore might have contributed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the EU, is not refuted: In the period prior to the introduction of the ETS, emissions fell from 4609 MtCO2-eq to 4154 MtCO2-eq between 1990 and 2005. This corresponds to a reduction of about 10% over 15 years and an average of 0.66 percentage points per year. With the introduction of the ETS in 2005, emissions fell from 4154 MtCO2-eq to 2786 MtCO2-eq. This corresponds to a reduction of about 33% over 19 years, or about 1.74 percentage points per year. Accordingly, emissions have fallen more than twice as fast since the introduction of the ETS as they did during the measurement period prior to that.
Furthermore, Ursula von der Leyen’s statement about a 71% growth in ETS-covered sectors since 2005 is misleading. This figure likely comes from the Annual European Union Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024, which reports that the entire EU economy grew by over 70% from 1990 to 2024. Von der Leyen, however, incorrectly applies this percentage to the much shorter ETS period (2005–2024).
To measure real economic growth, nominal GDP figures are not reliable because they do not account for inflation. Instead, Eurostat uses chained-volume data, which adjusts for price changes and provides a more accurate picture of economic growth. According to this data (using 2015 as reference year), the real GDP of the EU grew from about 11,148 billion euros in 2005 to 14,155 billion euros in 2024, which is an increase of approximately 27%. This percentage can be calculated utilizing the following formula:
GDP growth = ((GDP 2024 / GDP 2005) – 1) x 100
Substituting the empirical data yields:
((14,155 billion euros / 11,148 billion euros) – 1) x 100 = about 26.97%
Note: to properly assess von der Leyen’s statement, we would need data that specifically measures the economic growth of only the ETS-covered sectors (such as energy, heavy industry, and aviation) from 2005 to 2024. But still, a conclusion can be drawn: Even though von der Leyen’s 71% claim is incorrect, the corrected data still supports her broader point: emissions from ETS sectors fell by about 33% while the EU economy grew by 27%. This shows that economic growth and emission reductions can happen at the same time.
The ETS as a key driver of decarbonization
The EEA report places this development within a broad “policy mix.” In addition to the ETS, the decline was driven by the massive expansion of renewable energy, the shift from coal to natural gas, and improvements in energy efficiency. In addition, the structural shift toward service-based economies, regulatory requirements such as the 1999 Waste Directives, and agricultural and environmental policies of the 1990s made significant contributions. External factors, such as milder winters on average since 1990, also further reduced energy demand.
Despite this complex web of causes, the data shows that the ETS delivers “clear benefits” and serves as a key driver of decarbonization. A direct causal relationship is particularly evident in the chemical industry: Here, nitric acid production saw marked reductions in emissions starting precisely in 2008, when these emissions were included in the EU ETS and technical measures, such as special catalysts, were mandated.
Prof. Dr. Joachim Weimann (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg), an expert on the ETS, confirms that developments since the introduction of the ETS show that economic growth and falling emissions are not mutually exclusive and that the ETS therefore has “clear benefits.”
Expansion in the future
The EU is planning on introducing ETS 2, expanding to sectors not covered by ETS 1, such as buildings, road transport and small industrial sectors, which have been more difficult to decarbonize. It aims to contribute to the emission reduction targets of climate neutrality by 2050. This system works upstream, as fuel suppliers will be the ones to watch their emissions more closely. The ETS 2 cap is set to bring down emissions by 42% by 2030, in comparison to 2005 levels. The member states must use the revenues of ETS 2 for climate action and social measures, as the European commission states, and will be required to report how this money is spent. Its initial introduction was planned for 2027, but has been moved to 2028.
Conclusion
Von der Leyen claims that since the implementation of ETS in 2005 emissions have gone down 39% and the production in the sectors covered by ETS 1 have gone up by 71%. Even though these numbers actually refer to the time from 1990 until today, there is support for her core claim that the ETS has clear benefits: the emissions have gone down at double the speed since introducing ETS and the economy has grown substantially in the same time. In other words, the ETS has not caused economic stagnation but, within the framework of “progressive decoupling,” has demonstrated that climate protection and market growth can successfully coexist. Thus, the assessment of the system’s clear benefits is substantiated by the facts and the statement can be labelled as mostly true.
RESEARCH | ARTICLE © Victoria Haberzettl, Sam Helbing, Maja Pieszkur & Jule Weinmann, Stuttgart Media University, Germany
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